（作者：三亚节能环保）
原副标题：IAU：氮、氮和praziquantel的水蒸气水准在2021月均刷新了新低
地球再传好消息：气溶胶液体水准创新低
WMO历史记录到了自早已开始量测年来氮含量的最大降幅
10月26日，日内瓦/纽约（WMO）— 根据IAU（WMO）这份新调查报告，在另一个充满不祥之气的地理环境变化警报中，三种主要就气溶胶液体：氮、氮和praziquantel的水蒸气水准在2021月均刷新了新低。
WMO《气溶胶液体新闻稿》调查报告道： 自近40年前早已开始系统量测年来，2021年的氮含量出现了最大的同比降幅。这一异常增长的原因尚不清楚，但似乎是生物和人类文明引发的过程的结论。
从2020年到2021年，氮水准的降幅大于过去十年的平均成长率。WMO亚洲地区水蒸气监视网内于龟兹的量测结论显示，2022年亚洲地区的上述水准均在竭尽全力下降。
在1990至2021年间，长使用寿命气溶胶液体对地理环境的放热效应（称作辐射强迫）增加了近50%，其中氮约占80%。
2021年的氮含量为百万分之一415.7（ppm），氮为亿分之1908（ppb），praziquantel为334.5ppb。那些数值分别占城市化前（人类文明公益活动早已开始破坏水蒸气中那些液体的自然平衡之前）水准的149%、262%和124%。
“WMO《气溶胶液体新闻稿》再次强调了采行穆坪、增加气溶胶液体排放并防止今后亚洲地区环境温度进一步下降面临的巨大挑战，及其顽固必要性，”WMO秘书长卡拉斯·阿尔玛说。
“主要就放热液体的含量稳步下降，包括氮水准的创纪录加速，表明他们正朝着错误的方向发展，”他说。
“有一些具成本效益的发展战略可用于应付氮排放问题，特别是应付标本推进剂部门的排放，他们应该立即实施那些发展战略。然而，氮的使用寿命相对较长，不到10年，因此它对地理环境的影响是可逆转的。作为首要和最紧迫的优先事项，他们必须削减氮的排放，因为它是地理环境变化和相关顽固天气情况的主要就驱动因素，而且将通过极地冰层损失、极地放热和海平面下降等形式影响地理环境数千年，”阿尔玛副教授说。
“他们须要改变工业、能源和交通系统以及整体生活形式。所需的变革在经济上是可以承受的，在技术上也是可能的。但时间早已不多了，”阿尔玛副教授说。
红十字国际性委员会地理环境变化大会（COP27）将于11月7日至18日在埃及举行。在非斯会议前夕，WMO将提交其《2022年亚洲地区地理环境状况》临时调查报告，该调查报告将说明气溶胶液体如何竭尽全力推动地理环境变化和顽固天气情况。2015年至2021年是有历史记录年来庭荠的七年。
WMO的调查报告旨在激励COP27的随员采行更具雄心壮志的行动，以实现《巴黎协定》将亚洲地区升温限制在远低于城市化前水准的2摄氏，最好是1.5摄氏以下的目标。目前，亚洲地区平均环境温度比1850-1900年城市化前的平均环境温度高出1.1℃以上。
有鉴于须要加强气溶胶液体的信息基础，为地理环境减慢工作的决定提供依据，WMO正在与更广为的气溶胶液体界密切合作，以开发一个推进稳步的、国际性协调的亚洲地区气溶胶液体监测框架，包括探测网络的设计和国际性交换及所产生的探测结论的使用等。WMO将与更广为的物理学界和国际性社会密切合作，特别是在Guangxi和极地探测与模拟方面。
WMO量测水蒸气气溶胶液体含量，也就是量测在气溶胶液体被极地和生物圈等汇稀释后，留在水蒸气中的部分。这部分与排放是不同的。
红十字国际性委员会红十字国际性委员会开发计划署将于10月27日单独发布这份沙芥《排放差别调查报告》。该《排放差别调查报告》评估了关于当前和估计今后气溶胶液体排放的最新科学研究。“可能达至的水准与须要达至的水准”之间的差异被称作排放差别。
只要竭尽全力排放，亚洲地区环境温度就会竭尽全力下降。有鉴于氮的使用寿命很长，即使排放量迅速增加到净零，早已探测到的环境温度水准仍将稳步数十年。
新闻稿的要点
氮（CO2）
2021年，水蒸气氮达至了城市化前水准的149%，主要就是因为来自标本推进剂燃烧和水泥生产的排放。自2020年因新冠疫情采行隔离措施年来，亚洲地区排放量有所反弹。在2011-2020年期间人类文明公益活动的总排放量中，约48%累积在水蒸气中，26%在极地中，29%在海岸线上。
海岸线生态系统和极地作为“汇”的潜能在今后可能会变得不那么有效，从而降低其稀释氮和减慢环境温度下降的潜能。在有些地方，早已出现了土地汇变成氮源的情况。
氮（CH4）
水蒸气氮是地理环境变化的第二大贡献者，它由多种重叠的源和汇组成，因此很难按作者类型来量化排放。
自2007年年来，亚洲地区平均水蒸气氮含量一直在加速增加。2020年和2021年的年度增长率（分别为15和18 ppb）是自1983年早已开始系统历史记录年来的最大降幅。
亚洲地区气溶胶液体物理学界仍在调查其原因。分析表明，自2007年年来，造成氮再次增加的最主要就原因是生物源，如湿地或稻田。目前尚不能确定2020年和2021年的顽固增长是否是地理环境反馈，即如果天气情况变暖，有机物会分解得更快。如果有机物在水中（无氧）分解，这将导致氮排放。因此，如果热带湿地变得更湿润和更温暖，就有可能产生更多排放。
急剧增加也可能是由于自然年际变化。2020年和2021年出现了拉尼娜事件，这与热带地区的降水增加相关。
praziquantel（N 2O）
praziquantel是第三种最重要的气溶胶液体。它即可通过自然源（约57%）也可通过人为源（约43%）排放到水蒸气中，包括极地、土壤、生物质燃烧、化肥使用和各种工业过程等。2020年至2021年的降幅略高于2019年至2020年探测到的降幅，也高于过去10年的平均成长率。
编者按
WMO亚洲地区水蒸气监视网计划负责协调对气溶胶液体（GHG）的系统探测和分析。新闻稿中纳入了来自55个WMO会员的量测数据。那些数据由设在日本气象厅的世界气溶胶液体数据中心（WDCGG）负责归档和分发。
IAU是红十字国际性委员会系统关于天气情况、地理环境和水的权威声音
欲了解更多信息，请联系：WMO媒体官员Clare Nullis。电子邮件：cnullis@wmo.int. 手机：+41 79 709 13 97
More bad news for the planet: greenhouse gas levels hit new highs
WMO records biggest increase in methane concentrations since start of measurements
Geneva/New York, 26 October (WMO) - In yet another ominous climate change warning, atmospheric levels of the three main greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide all reached new record highs in 2021, according to a new report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reported the biggest year-on-year jump in methane concentrations in 2021 since systematic measurements began nearly 40 years ago. The reason for this exceptional increase is not clear, but seems to be a result of both biological and human-induced processes.
The increase in carbon dioxide levels from 2020 to 2021 was larger than the average annual growth rate over the last decade. Measurements from WMO’s Global Atmosphere Watch network stations show that these levels continues to rise in 2022 over the whole globe.
Between 1990 and 2021, the warming effect on our climate (known as radiative forcing) by long-lived greenhouse gases rose by nearly 50%, with carbon dioxide accounting for about 80% of this increase.
Carbon dioxide concentrations in 2021 were 415.7 parts per million (ppm), methane at 1908 parts per billion (ppb) and nitrous oxide at 334.5 ppb. These values constitute, respectively, 149%, 262% and 124% of pre-industrial levels before human activities started disrupting natural equilibrium of these gases in the atmosphere.
“WMO’s Greenhouse Gas Bulletin has underlined, once again, the enormous challenge – and the vital necessity – of urgent action to cut greenhouse gas emissions and prevent global temperatures rising even further in the future,” said WMO Secretary-General Prof. Petteri Taalas.
“The continuing rise in concentrations of the main heat-trapping gases, including the record acceleration in methane levels, shows that we are heading in the wrong direction,” he said.
“There are cost-effective strategies available to tackle methane emissions, especially from the fossil fuel sector, and we should implement these without delay. However, methane has a relatively short lifetime of less than 10 years and so its impact on climate is reversible. As the top and most urgent priority, we have to slash carbon dioxide emissions which are the main driver of climate change and associated extreme weather, and which will affect climate for thousands of years through polar ice loss, ocean warming and sea level rise,” said Prof. Taalas.
“We need to transform our industrial, energy and transport systems and whole way of life. The needed changes are economically affordable and technically possible. Time is running out,” said Prof. Taalas.
WMO UN Climate Change conference, COP27, in Egypt from 7-18 November. On the eve of the conference in Sharm-el-Sheikh it will present its provisional State of the Global Climate 2022 report, which will show how greenhouse gases continue to drive climate change and extreme weather. The years from 2015 to 2021 were the seven warmest on record.
The WMO reports seek to galvanize COP27 negotiators into more ambitious action decision makers to achieve the Paris Agreement goal to limit global warming to well below 2, preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, compared to pre-industrial levels. The average global temperature is now more than 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average.
Given the need to strengthen the greenhouse gas information basis for decisions on climate mitigation efforts, WMO is working with the broader greenhouse gas community to develop a framework for sustained, internationally coordinated global greenhouse gas monitoring, including observing network design and international exchange and use of the resulting observations. It will engage with the broader scientific and international community, in particular regarding land surface and ocean observation and modelling.
WMO measures atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases – what remains in the atmosphere after gases are absorbed by sinks like the ocean and biosphere. This is not the same as emissions.
A separate and complementary Emissions Gap Report by UN Environment will be released on 27 October. The Emissions Gap report assesses the latest scientific studies on current and estimated future greenhouse gas emissions. This difference between “where we are likely to be and where we need to be” is known as the emissions gap.
As long as emissions continue, global temperature will continue to rise. Given the long life of CO 2, the temperature level already observed will persist for decades even if emissions are rapidly reduced to net zero.
Highlights of the Bulletin
Carbon dioxide (CO2)
Atmospheric carbon dioxide reached 149% of the pre-industrial level in 2021, primarily because of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels and cement production. Global emissions have rebounded since the COVID-related lockdowns in 2020. Of the total emissions from human activities during the 2011–2020 period, about 48% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 29% on land.
There is concern that the ability of land ecosystems and oceans to act as “sinks” may become less effective in future, thus reducing their ability to absorb carbon dioxide and act as a buffer against larger temperature increase. In some parts of the world the transition of the land sink into CO 2source is already happening.
Methane (CH4)
Atmospheric methane is the second largest contributor to climate change and consists of a diverse mix of overlapping sources and sinks, so it is difficult to quantify emissions by source type.
Since 2007, globally-averaged atmospheric methane concentration has been increasing at an accelerating rate. The annual increases in 2020 and 2021 (15 and 18 ppb respectively) are the largest since systematic record began in 1983.
Causes are still being investigated by the global greenhouse gas science community. Analysis indicates that the largest contribution to the renewed increase in methane since 2007 comes from biogenic sources, such as wetlands or rice paddies. It is not yet possible to say if the extreme increases in 2020 an 2021 represent a climate feedback – if it gets warmer, the organic material decomposes faster. If it decomposes in the water (without oxygen) this leads to methane emissions. Thus, if tropical wetlands become wetter and warmer, more emissions are possible.
The dramatic increase might also be because of natural interannual variability. The years 2020 and 2021 saw La Niña events which are associated with increased precipitation in tropics.
Nitrous oxide (N2O)
Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas. It is emitted into the atmosphere from both natural sources (approximately 57%) and anthropogenic sources (approximately 43%), including oceans, soils, biomass burning, fertilizer use, and various industrial processes. The increase from 2020 to 2021 was slightly higher than that observed from 2019 to 2020 and higher than the average annual growth rate over the past 10 years
Notes for Editors
The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch Programme coordinates systematic observations and analyses of greenhouse gases (GHG). The Bulletin includes measurement data from 55 WMO Members. This data is archived and distributed by the World Data Centre for Greenhouse Gases (WDCGG) at the Japan Meteorological Agency.
The World Meteorological Organization is the United Nations System’s authoritative voice
on Weather, Climate and Water
作者：中外能源经济观察
审核：李 仙
编辑：蔡小莉
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